Artificial market
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The artificial market (じんこうしじょう, artificial market) is an aerial market created artificially on the computer.
The study of the artificial market is one of the research fields called the complex system approach. I model a phenomenon of the complicated reality world as a set of the elements with strong interaction, and complex system approach is approach analyzing the theory model by computer simulation. At the Santa Fe research institute which was the central existence of the complex system study, a study of the complex system economics has been performed.
I can perform the analysis of the real economic phenomenon or existing economic theoretical inspection by using an artificial market. In addition, I can use the simulation result obtained from the artificial market for the decision-making support in the spot of the real money market.
Table of contents
Conventional economic theoretical inspection
The inspection of a theory and the hypothesis about the money market that has been assumed in conventional economics. As for the price that market participants whom Shu-Heng Chen reached predict, there are always the inspection of the rational expectation hypothesis to be right or inspection of the efficient market hypothesis reflected to a price as for all information instantly.
Rational expectation hypothesis
The hypothesis that I predict that is conformal in the model after having used all information that all economic main constituents grasp the model in a certain economy model exactly and can know.
When I raise the incentive of the specific speculation, and the expectation of the value of money with the economic conditions that are uncertain macro causes the society change, Katsuto Iwai of the economist does it [1]. Iwai points out, "the expectation" "has a big influence on economy itself, and the expectation is essence itself for economy with the money" [1].
Kazuo Yamaguchi of the sociologist points out, "it becomes the driving force of the social change when the expectation formation has social spread characteristics" [1].
Criticism
Keiichiro Kobayashi of the economist points out, "the micro-rationality that all family budget, companies are rational is not managed, and the rational expectation is really only a theoretical approximation" [2].
"Classicism is well criticized for the reason of assuming a too rational "businessman", but the model of the rational expectation school and a businessman doing it are more than classicism, and it is "the businessman" that I am omniscient and omnipotent and am near, and the businessman is impartiality for the future, I can predict it, and it is available by all economy theories again, and such, it is necessary to hang enormous cost and time to predict it, but Naoki Komuro of a political scientist, the economist states, it is supposed that the cost is zero at time" [3]. The chamber states, "a mathematical error was what was discovered, and this is a chance in an article of Robert Lucas who is famous by being good at mathematics as for it having been a turning point for the Lucas group who was full of the height of prosperity, and the theoretical criticism came to be performed" [3].
Efficient market hypothesis
A hypothesis to become the random walk as for the behavior of the market because the market participant adopts all available information quickly, and the situation to become more advantageous than other market participants does not occur because of new information.
Mechanism elucidation of the market phenomenon
Elucidation of the mechanism of various market phenomena that I cannot explain by the conventional market theory. There are analyses of the mechanism that a study of Hideki Takayasu about the mechanism that the frequency distribution of the price fluctuation becomes the shape that a hem is thicker than normal distribution, and is sharp and a bubble phenomenon occur. It is a phenomenon to occur regardless of the intention of market participants by the interaction between market participants, and these phenomena are called a phenomenon of the emergence.
Footnote
- ^ a b c The expectation formation and social reform: It is meaning すること RIETI May 21, 2013 to declining birthrate measures, a gender equality, employment system reform
- Where is ^ "expectation" elucidation to? RIETI Nihon Keizai Shimbun October 21, 2013
- For ^ a b Naoki Komuro "great masters Daiyamondosha over the economics", 2,004 years, it is page 77.
This article is taken from the Japanese Wikipedia Artificial market
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