"The opinion of all" is right unexpectedly
 | There are plural problems with this article. Please cooperate with improvement and the discussion in the notebook page.
|
(みんなのいけんはあんがいただしい) where "the opinion of all is right unexpectedly" is for Japanese translation of this "The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations" (or the wisdom of the crowd appears in the wisdom of the crowd how in business, economy, society, a nation whether a lot of why are smarter than a few) released in 2004 by James スロウィッキー ().
Table of contents
Summary
The thought that the conclusion that the group gives by gathering together information in a group can lead a good conclusion to than personal who in the group thinks is written. I show plural case studies with this book and argue using an anecdote and mention the wisdom of the crowd from the viewpoint of some fields including the beginning class-like sociology and psychology.
By the first story, the mean that I collected the weight expectation of the ox by the crowd by the county fair into is approximately a surprising episode of Francis Galton who agreed with the weight of the original taste (the mean had fewer errors than the expected numbers by the specialist in what kind of cow).
This book conflicts with not only the crowd psychology that has been understood traditionally but also the variety of the opinion by individual decision. When it gathers an independent individual opinion in the established theory in the traditional crowd psychology, it is a similarity embossed from many statistics samplings that the decision and prediction become better than an individual (to be an expert). As for this, the discussion from a statistical point of view is held in this book.
The title of this book is a modification of "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" (whether insanity and bubble - - why person run for a folly the title in Japanese when it is in the group) published by Charles Mackay in 1841.
Type of the wisdom of the crowd
James スロウィッキー classified the scenes where the judgment in the group was superior to individual judgments in three models and explained it.
- Recognition
- Process a thought, information. It is early and is more reliable and can evade the political pressure than I entrust an expert by the market judgment
- Adjustment
- Cooperation
- How can the group make a reliable network without the pressure of the model from the outside without control from the center again? I touch the free market in particular in this section.
Four condition to form the wisdom of the crowd
All groups are not smart. For example, there were investors who were out of order in the bubble market, and did not get the control. A condition to arrange below is a condition not to be missing because the wisdom of the crowd becomes good.
- Variety of the opinion
- The individual human being should have inherent information for a certain fact. Even if it is a strange thing.
- Independency
- The individual opinion must not be played around
- Disperse
- The individual can increase inherent knowledge by a specialty
- The collection
- There is several mechanism to integrate an individual opinion with the thing of the group
Based on this book, Oinas-Kukkonen found the wisdom of the crowd of following eight.
- The person whom there is in a certain group can behave as group itself
- With some cases, the group whole was clearly wiser than the expert in the group and was smart.
- Three conditions for a group to become wise are variety, independency, decentralization
- The best decision passed through a disagreement or a debate
- The excessive communication may take wisdom from the group
- A collection function of the information is required
- When it is appropriate, to the person that appropriate information is appropriate, it is necessary to be sent by an appropriate method at an appropriate place
- It is not necessary to compete with an expert
The condition that the wisdom of the crowd does not function
スロウィッキー learned the case that made decision that it was poor at the wisdom of the crowd. When the member of the group minds an opinion of another person excessively and does not produce individual thoughts. When decision and the information by the individual do not have validity, the crowd behaves only according to opinion of the smartest member.
- Equalization
- Variety is important among crowds
- Central concentration
- In Columbia disintegration in midair accident, I criticized bureaucratic hierarchical structure of the management of NASA
- Division
- Because information was closed in the American intelligence community at the others interval, 911 was not able to prevent it. CIA made network Intellipedia for information sharing with the United States of America Director of National Intelligence afterwards
- Imitation
- "An information snowslide." The decision of some early people may affect the opinion of the person deciding it later.
- Emotion
- It is mass hysteria in pressure, the herd instinct from the neighborhood, the extreme example
Connection
I speak スロウィッキー in the chapter called "an independent individual and a smart group" or "an excessive connection". "We may interchange without the information snowslide without losing independency how". He pushes it forward in this way.
- Do the connection flexibly
- Consult a variety of sources of information by oneself as much as possible
- You step over the hierarchical structure, and make a group
Tim O'Reilly mentioned it in context of the wisdom of the crowd by Google, Wiki, blog, success of Web2.0.
Allied item
This article is taken from the Japanese Wikipedia "The opinion of all" is right unexpectedly
This article is distributed by cc-by-sa or GFDL license in accordance with the provisions of Wikipedia.
In addition, Tranpedia is simply not responsible for any show is only by translating the writings of foreign licenses that are compatible with CC-BY-SA license information.
0 개의 댓글:
댓글 쓰기