2016년 5월 11일 수요일

Prediction

Prediction

Vagueness evasion Please see "J horror theater" about a movie "prediction".

A prediction (よげん, prediction) is "to declare it beforehand" prior to the realization about a certain thing. (generally I come off)

I point to talking about a future phenomenon, and "the prediction" as the mysterious phenomenon is often treated as a topic of the domains of the para-science as well as astrology and channeling reasonably in that by a method of the reasoning not to be possible of the thing of explaining it.

When I handle a future phenomenon, in conformity with a model of natural science and the social science, the thing which is available for rational explanation is not treated with the prediction in the mysterious meaning. Examples include exercise, a weather forecast, the population prediction of the human imminent object. But the English prediction includes a forecast, the meaning of the prediction.

"The prediction" is originally synonymous with "the prophecy" as the Chinese word. However, prophecy (prophecy) and the prediction (prediction, prediction) in the revealed religion are different concepts inherently [1]. However, the thing which talked about the future is included in prophecy and an oracle, and the part is a prediction [1].

I deal with the prediction as the mysterious phenomenon in this clause mainly and take up the example which assigns the word "prediction" to the expectation for the unexplained problem in the natural science as comparison partially.

Table of contents

Generation of the prediction

It is formed by a foreteller writes the prediction about a future phenomenon or dictating it. The process is remembrance by the consciousness activity of the foreteller. In this respect, the prediction does not have the fictionization for other general subjects and the place to change. However, there is not rational explanation, and there is the specialty of the prediction as the fictionization in the place that is going to discuss the right or wrong of the contents though it depends on the remembrance of the foreteller exclusively about the reasoning process to predict a future phenomenon.

Other than a thing depending on the remembrance of the foreteller in a prediction purely, there is the thing adopting a form of the fortune-telling to use some kind of tools or information for secondarily. The thing by these fortune-telling is produced in the application to a concrete phenomenon after a process of the prediction remembrance of the Rev. fortune-telling and is included in a prediction in a broad sense at the point not to be accompanied by rational explanation.

Hit of the prediction

It becomes the sufficient condition about the phenomenon that is not predicted reasonably to record the contents of the phenomenon what takes place definitely beforehand to show the hit of the prediction. The document admitted that I satisfy the above sufficient condition widely is not confirmed by 2012.

As an example to be often seen with a thing named a prediction,

  • Interpret abstract words (prediction) left beforehand to a fact in follow-up
  • The accidental hit that several cases proved right while I talked a lot

There is a thing to assume the hit of the を prediction or the accomplishment. These are not considered to be the hit of the prediction in the cognitive psychology [2]. In addition, an expression of the specific ability of the foreteller or paranormal communication may be done with performed evidence with the hit of the prediction, but the method to distinguish it whether it is the thing that it does not depend accidentally, and I was foreseen beforehand by the phenomenon that hit the mark does not exist. [3].

The prediction of the phenomenon for the eternity is possible if I can grasp a position and the motion of every object of the world by the cause of the view of the world of the Newtonian mechanics. Existence to be able to look around the future is in this way called a lah positive evil spirit. However, under the uncertainty principle, this came to be considered impossible. Even if I was able to establish an equation and the initial value that the system obeys in the non-linear dynamics system after butterfly effect was known, the difference of the minute initial value enlarges it and is regenerated, and it is said that it is difficult that precision predicts definite future states of the systems well. In the agnosticism, I do not accept the concept called the prediction.

When I settle these points

  • Testimony contents considered to be a prediction are insufficient to identify a future phenomenon definitely.
  • A method to reason by the future phenomenon by the prediction does not have rational explanation.
    • Generally, as for the method to explain the case that a human being treated by a prediction is concerned with reasonably, it considerably seem with difficulty (impossible virtually).

Say と, and it is generally recognized that it is proper to handle the prediction as para-science.

Deja vu

Many people experience a certain paramnesia experience called the paramnesia (deja vu). However, because they notice the paramnesia for the first time when the phenomenon usually happened, they express the beforehand memory, and a prediction and the thing doing are difficult. Specifically, I refer to paramnesia.

Great prediction

The prediction, the great prediction became famous for "a large prediction of Nostradamus" that was writing of Tsutomu Goto at a bound in Japan. After that (including a parody-like use )"○○() the book of the title such as a great prediction is published much [4]. There is not the clear standard about the border of a prediction and the great prediction.

The prediction that I cannot consider to be the fair hit example

Subsequent prediction

After a certain event happened, the subsequent prediction (じごよげん) is the prediction that was forged as if I foresaw it beforehand. The thing which adds subsequent interpretation to the vague prediction that I spoke at the top is placed as kind of this. Needless to say, it is a simple deception, and, as for the subsequent prediction, there is the person who a follow-up prediction is found out in the American fortune-teller, and lost trust rather than a prediction. It is pointed out that others, the leaf of the AGA Aktiebolag's tear include an element belonging to a subsequent prediction.

Self-accomplishment prediction

Self-accomplishment (よげんのじこじょうじゅ) (British self-fulfiling prophecy) of a self-accomplishment prediction (じこじょうじゅよげん) or the prediction is the prediction that was led to hit the mark by the person who foretold it or the person who took it taking the action along it after a prediction. Last moments of the Nostradamus second and an anecdote to be informed fulfill death of Gerolamo Cardano. In addition, it has it pointed out that there is the case which I mistake when I hit it because the person who took constellation fortune-telling and a blood type character classification, the result that I possess it, and making noise was shown in of the bank as a more imminent example takes the action along it (an unconscious imitation a conscious imitation) [5], and it may be said that this is a kind of self accomplishment prediction. This word is used as a sociopsychological term [6].

Main foreteller, prediction book

Foreteller

It is the person who "the foreteller" here calls itself the foreteller in the meaning to perceive the future by a supernatural method or is considered like that. In addition, according to the definition mentioned above, the prophet in the religion of Abraham does not include it here (the appearance connection of the Holy Mother is inapplicable, too).

Animal

An animal does not foretell it directly, but may let a specific animal foretell it by a human being interpreting it as some kind of operation.

including the pre-foreword of unknown author

The doubted thing includes being the forgery which is unrelated to a displayed author.

Other

In general, of the debater who is not considered to be a prediction, but insists that a prophetic message is put is. It is one of the technique of the ton demonstration book I take up a classic or a legendary book, and to insist that a prediction is included.

"Prediction" in the natural science

In the domain of the natural science, the word of "the prediction" can be used. When a certain hypothesis justifies it, this is used when I assume a phenomenon of the undiscovered material which should exist by all means and non-observation. "The prediction" in the natural science has an important meaning in inspecting the validity of the hypothesis. I may be said to be expectation in an about the same meaning.

Examples of such a "prediction" include predictions of the existence of the positron by the rack on a thing, the day when existence of Neptune and thing, Albert Einstein who foretold the orbit foretold the gravity distorted ray that was unconfirmed by general theory of relativity in those days from perturbation of the Uranus Dmitri Mendeleyev having foretold an elemental property undiscovered in those days by the periodic table and Edmond Harry having foretold the recurrence of Halley's comet, Yul van ルヴェリエ and John couch Adams. It was a thing with being judged that the winning the Nobel Prize of Japanese Hideki Yukawa who became naive foretold the existence of the mesotron in the particle physics.

"Prediction" in the social science

The details refer to "Marxism criticism"

In thought and the Marxism of curl Marx, it was stated that communist society was visited by a revolution and was criticized saying that this was a religious prediction [9]

Fiction and prediction

Fiction as the prediction

What was occasionally talked about in fiction may happen in the reality. Including the thing which is the gift of the minute analysis of a thing and the author who are only a coincidence as for the factor various. For a "prophetic" novelist, the name of Herbert George Wells is well known. In addition, the self-accomplishment prediction-like thing is included as Leo Sziard let an A-bomb be in use under the influence of a work of Wells in this.

The fiction that a prediction is over

The fiction that "a prediction" affects the main part of the story is often seen.

Example of the work

Footnote

  1. It is p.32 "something pp.78-82, Yasushi Kosugi ^ a b Hideo Chiyozaki "decadent situation and end prophecy" (Kodansha modern new book, 1994) (words company, 1992 of the life) with Islam". In addition, refer to the problem of the prophet # equivalent for the character of "prophecy" and "the prediction" in Japan for.
  2. passim where ^ Satoshi Kikuchi "scientizes psychology - end of the century of the prediction"
  3. pp.32-33 where ^ Satoshi Kikuchi "scientizes psychology - end of the century of the prediction"
  4. As of - January, 2007 when 382 books make a hit when I search "a great prediction" in ^ Amazon.co.jp
  5. ^ Kazuo Shimizu (1997) "lie pp.90-92, Satoshi Kikuchi (1998) "psychology pp.255-268 of the revised edition size prediction" of the prediction"
  6. ^ Satoshi Kikuchi (1998) "psychology p.255 of the prediction", Toshio Yamagishi (2001) "social psychology keyword" 有斐閣, pp.174-175
  7. ^, e.g., Charles Berlitz "day Futami Publishing of the 1999 fate." I refer to en:Pyramidology.
  8. ^ Toru Kawajiri "law Futami Publishing of the Nostradamus Messiah", 1987. 坂之王道 "code youth publishing company of Hiroshige", 2006.
  9. For ^ Joseph Roggendorf Christianity and modern culture Keisuke Noguchi reason Hirofumi temple Publishing 1948 (Athens library), Masamichi Inoki "genealogy Misuzu Publishing of the communism", 1,949 years, it is an issue of Shoichi Kohashi "religion criticism and Christianity, Buddhism company society study of the Marxism". 1964, the Brzezinski "birth and end of the communism in great failure - - 20th century" (Asuka new company, 1989)

References

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