2017년 4월 21일 금요일

IPCC fourth evaluation report

IPCC fourth evaluation report

IPCC fourth evaluation report (あいぴーしーしーだいよじひょうかほうこくしょ, English: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) is a report about the global warming published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations substructure.

Table of contents

Summary

I gather provided scientific knowledge to date and evaluate a cause, influence, measures of the warming [1]. It is an approved report by the panel which gathers the scientific technical social economy-like knowledge of the more than 2000 experts from 130 countries of the world about global warming [2], and is comprised of the government representative of [3] and participation 195 countries [3].

Activity of the human lets global warming move and thereby points out the risk that serious damage produces [4]. A more immediate than the present conditions and large-scale action points it out with requisiteness that the human is effective and can greatly reduce damage having executable measures means economically if I take measures with the effect within 20-30 years.

As for the conclusion of the report, information about a matter and the reliability to remain of the discussion is always written together with plural evidence based on extensive technological documents [3]. An error and the correction clause that some mistake including the ratio of a prediction of the retreat speed of some glaciers and the Netherlands low land was discovered after publication of 2007, but were found in [5](#AR4 which was pointed out that there was not it with the thing which influenced all the conclusion of the report reference). The main conclusion does not change, and the making of the fifth evaluation report which I added more data to is pushed forward [6].

The title of the report is "IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: It is Climate Change 2007 ". It is abbreviated to AR4 (4th Assessment Report) (I use even this article as follows). The IPCC is abbreviation of "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change".

Process of the making

Making decided AR4 as an evaluation report following IPCC third evaluation report (TAR) of 2001 in April, 2002. In time of three years, I am shown after the contribution of .800 representative writers more than 450 writing cooperator more than it from the above in 130 countries, the review [3] of more than 2500 experts sequentially from February, 2007, and even anyone is available from the site of the IPCC. I incorporate the new knowledge that three times of evaluations of the past IPCC were got after TAR by a sheet of plastic.

Based on being written based on documents available globally which caught the review as much as possible [3]. As for the documents of non-publication or the non-review, examination is demanded from the critical standpoint about quality and the effectiveness of the source of information [3]. The conclusion of the report is written as plural evidence based on extensive technological documents [3].

The work was divided into three following taskforces (Working Group, WG) and was pushed forward.

The unification report which I summarized three content mentioned above in is shown.

Each report consists of Summary for Policymakers (abstract for SPM, policy deciders), abstracts such as Technical Summary(TS) and the individual chapter and is available in form of electronic intelligence and the printed matter (I refer to the melody of the # outside link). I provide the site where Ministry of the Environment gathered information about AR4 in Japan and show a commentary brochure for presentation and public who gathered up a summary. The translation into Japanese of the WG2 report body was shown with a glossary in March, 2009, too. A translation into Japanese book of SPM of the unification report, SPM of WG1 - WG3 and TS is published (I refer to the melody of the # book).

I offer information about individual predictive contents and uncertainty of the findings in the report and evaluate "possibility" (likelihood) and "conviction degree" (confidence).

The first taskforce report: Grounds of the natural science

Report "The Physical Science Basis" (grounds of the natural science, AR4 WG I) by the first taskforce (WG I) was published in February, 2007. This report evaluates a climate system and a climate change. Based on many observation facts and simulation results, use of the fossil fuel by the human being is regarded as the main reason of the global warming and points out an inexplicable thing only in a natural factor.

Contents

The contents such as follows are included in a report.

Climate change factor of the act of man origin and the natural origin

 
An evaluation result of the emission compelling force according to each factor. An effect to promote global warming is high so that a positive price is big. A one-tenth things by the change of the sun emission are more less than it than the total of the artificial factor of the most right-side end.

I it as a result of direct observation of the recent climate change

  • It is indubitable for the warming of the climate system. (figure SPM-3, 3.2, 4.2, 5.5)
  • The rise in temperature width from 1906 through 2005 is 0.74 degrees Celsius. This is bigger than 0.6 degrees Celsius of the IPCC third evaluation report. (3.2)
  • 昇温傾向 from 1956 through 2005 is 0.13 degrees Celsius per ten years. This is approximately 2 times of the tendency from 1906 through 2005. (3.2)
  • The world mean marine temperature increased to at least depth of the water 3,000m. More than 80% of the heat added to a climate system are absorbed in the ocean and they inflate seawater and contribute to a rise in sea surface water level. (table SPM-1, 5.2, 5.5)
  • Mountains glacier and the snow area decrease. (table SPM-1, 4.6, 4.7, 4.8, 5.5)
  • The possibility that the decrease in ice sheet of Greenland and the South Pole contributed to a rise in sea surface water level is considerably high. (table SPM-1, 4.6, 4.8, 5.5)
  • The quantity of rise in sea level during a forefather period (the 20th century) estimated it to be 0.17 (0.12-0.22) m. A conviction degree is high in this observation level. (5.5)
  • The area where a more strictly longer-term drought was observed in after 1970 particularly tropical area and subtropical zone area enlarged it. (3.3)
  • An extensive change of the outbreak frequency of the extreme temperature (a high temperature and the low temperature that extreme temperatures; is extreme) phenomenon was observed. The outbreak frequency on the day when frost dropped cold night a cold day decreased, and the outbreak frequency of the heat wave increased at hot night on a hot day. (table SPM-2, 3.8)
  • The strength of the tropical cyclone of North Atlantic Ocean increased. Strength increase of the activity of the tropical cyclone in other areas is suggested, but the quality of the data before the observation start with the man-made satellite includes big concern. The number of the annual outbreak of the tropical cyclone does not have a clear tendency. (3.8)

Paleoclimatology-like point of view

  • The warming seen from the reproduction result of at least climate for the past 1300 years for this half a century is abnormal. (6.4, 6.6)
  • It is thought that the decrease of the ice and snow of the polar regions area approximately 125,000 years before it was high of the temperature raised farther than the present sea level for 4-6m. (6.4, 6.6)

The understanding of the climate change and the analysis that it is caused

  • As for the rise in mean temperature to be seen from the mid-20th century, the possibility that increase of the artificial greenhouse gas depends on is considerably high. (9.4, 9.5)
  • A conviction degree of the understanding for the emission compelling force improved by the analysis of the climate model on the basis of an observation fact. I became able to say to climate sensitivity, "it is very likely" for the first time. (6.6, 8.6, 9.6, box 10.2)
  • When carbon dioxide concentration doubles, the rise in mean temperature width is estimated at 2-4.5 degrees Celsius, and the possibility less than 1.5 degrees Celsius is considerably low. I have possibilities more than 4.5 degrees Celsius, but the difference between models is big. (8.6, 9.6, box 10.2)

Forecast of the future climate change

  • I expect the rise in temperature pace of the next 20 years with approximately 0.2 degrees Celsius per ten years. I estimate that it rises approximately 0.1 degrees Celsius per ten years if all greenhouse gas and aerosol are kept at a standard at the time of 2000. (10.3, 10.7)
  • If greenhouse gas continues being exhausted at the present conditions or a further pace, warming goes and causes many changes for a climate of the earth, and the possibility that the influence grows big than a thing observed by the end of the 20th century is considerably high. (10.3)
  • As for the forecast of the rise in youngest mean temperature width, there are 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius and a difference by the scenario (SRES scenario) of the future artificial discharge in this century. (figure SPM.5)
  • The forecast of the quantity of rise in sea level is predicted with 18-59cm now in the end of the century. This value does not include the influence of the change of the speed to flow down such as ice sheets [7]. (table SPM.3, figure 10.33)
  • Land area and quantity of absorption of carbon dioxide in the sea area decrease by warming, and quantity of influence by the artificial discharge increases. (7.3, 10.5)
  • Even if greenhouse gas is kept at constant density, the artificial warming and rise in sea surface continue by the length of the time scale of a climate process and the feedback for many centuries. (10.4, 10.5, 10.7)

The second taskforce report: Influence, adaptation, fragile

Report "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" (influence, adaptation, weakness) by the second taskforce (WG II) was published in April, 2007. I settle scientific knowledge at the present about influence on environment of nature by the climate change and the human and those adaptability and weakness in the report. About a change of temperature and the water temperature and influence on aquatic resources, ecosystem, a forecast of the damage to the human being society, I gather up the matter which I understood to date.

The item such as follows is included in a report.

Knowledge at the present about the influence on environment of nature by the climate change and the human

  • Natural environments are affected by the influence of the regional climate change particularly the rise in temperature. (1.3, 4.4, 8.2, 14.2, 15.4)
  • Glacier decrease, permafrost decrease, ecosystemic change in the ocean
  • Rise in water temperature of wetlands and the river
  • Ecosystemic change (the spring arrival hasty the movement of the animals and plants to pole area and the highlands) in the land area
  • It is acidified the seawater
  • Influence of the artificial warming is led to the physical conclusion that I am more likely to appear biologically by four following facts:
1.If the possibility that brought most of the global warming that artificial greenhouse gas increase was observed now by the report of the first taskforce is considerably high, I am concluded.
2.More than 89% of observation data more than 29000 of 75 studies indicating the physical biology-like change are equal with the direction of the change by the warming. (figure SPM.1, 1.4)
3.The possibility that the local agreement that a remarkable change not to contradict an area and the warming that warming is remarkable was observed was dripped only in a factor of the natural origin is considerably low. (figure SPM.1, 1.4)
4.Many studies distinguish an artificial factor and a natural factor by the comparison with the observation fact clearly. Predictions in consideration of a factor artificial only than a natural factor match an observation fact much better. (1.4)
  • Influence on other nature and human environment has begun to appear.
  • Increase (1.3) of the glacial lake rip risk
  • The prolongation of the dry season in Africa and uncertainty-related increase (1.3) of the rain
  • Damp ground and mangrove decrease in shoreline by the rise in sea level, high waves, flood damage increase (1.3)

Knowledge at the present about the future influence

  • Aquatic resources
  • The large increase and decrease, slush decrease in aquatic resources (3.4)
  • Influence increase of the drought, heavy rain increase, increase (WGI list SPM-2, WGII 3.4) of the flood risk
  • Ecosystem
  • I am more likely to have effect more than the ecosystemic resilience (4.1-4.6)
  • The absorption of carbon of the land area ecosystem is saturated in this century in the middle and is more likely to decrease afterwards. When the discharge that is higher than the present standard continues, I may turn for discharge and accelerate a climate change. (4.ES, F4.2)
  • By a rise in mean temperature of 1.5-2.5 degrees Celsius, the animals and plants of approximately 20-30% of kinds are endangered. (4.4, T4.1)
  • By rise width more than 1.5-2.5 degrees Celsius, a big change is predicted for ecosystemic structure and function. Adverse effects are predicted for supply of the water food. (4.4)
  • Marine acidification goes, and the adverse effects to a kind depending on coral and shellfish, them are predicted. (B4.4, 6.4)
  • Food, fiber, adverse effects (5.4, 5.5, 5.6) to a forest resource
  • Adverse effects (6.3, 6.4, 6.5, T6.11) to a seaside and the low land
  • Industry, the residence, adverse effects (5.4, 7.1-7.5) to the society
  • Influence on health (8.ES, 8.2-8.4)
  • Africa, Asia, Europe, the United States, concrete prediction according to the area including the polar regions area
  • Long-term large-scale change
  • By a rise in mean temperature of 1-4 degrees Celsius, a rise in sea level more than 4-6m gets up from several centuries to several thousand years (moderate conviction degree). If Greenland and southwest pole ice sheet completely melt, I cause each 7m, rise in sea level of 5m. (WGI 6.4, 10.7, WGII 19.3)
  • Influence on vegetation of the oxygen density and land area in a marine circulatory speed drop and a marine temperature rise, ecosystem, the fishery by it, absorption, seawater of carbon dioxide by the ocean (WGI 10.3, 10.7, WGII 12.6, 19.3)
  • Various cost increase by the climate change
  • By a rise in mean temperature more than 2-3 degrees Celsius, the possibility that decrease or cost increases is considerably high in profit in all areas. (9.ES, 9.5, 10.6, T10.9, 15.3, 15.ES)
  • The social cost (social cost of carbon:SCC) per 1 ton of carbon is estimated to be $ 10 - $ 350 (mean $12/t). (20.6)
  • The damage of the climate change is serious and is more likely to increase with time. (T20.3, 20.6, F20.4)

Knowledge at the present about coping to a climate change

  • Coping begins at present, but the scale is limited. (7.6, 8.2, 8.6, 17.ES, 17.2, 16.5, 11.5)
  • Coping larger-scale than the present conditions is necessary. Extensive correspondence means exists. (7.6, 17.2, 17.4)
  • The sustained development can relax a climate change. On the contrary, the climate change can disturb sustained development. (20.3, 20.7, seven sections of 3-8 chapters)

The third taskforce report: Easing measure for climate change

Report "Mitigation of Climate Change" (easing measure for climate change) by the third taskforce (WG III) was published in October, 2007. From the aspect that this report is scientific about the relaxation of the climate change, and is technical, and is environmental, and is economical, and is social evaluate. The spread enumerates prospective easing measures in an easing measure and the future when the effectiveness was already confirmed. I classify scenarios when I took an easing measure in six "categories" according to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and show mild cost and damage prediction each. I mention an effort of the self-act and an effect and the role of various policies [8].

Tendency to discharge of greenhouse gas (GHG)

  • The discharge of GHG (greenhouse gas) rose 70% from 1970 through 2004.
  • It was discharge from an energy section to have increased most and rose 145%. (1.3, 6.1, 11.3, figure 1.1, figure 1.3)
  • Many countries and a climate change and the energy security that are effective for the relaxation of the climate change in an area, various policies about the sustained development are seen, but scales are not still enough to restrain a global discharge. (1.3, 12.2)
  • It is predicted that the world GHG discharges continue increasing in the present relaxation policy and sustained development plan for the next dozens of years. (1.3, 3.2)

Easing measure (until 2030)-like at the short middle

  • It controls the increase of the GHG discharge during the next dozens of years, and it is possible economically to make a discharge with less than it of present conditions. (3.6, 10.4, 11.3)
  • As for the influence on GDP, it is predicted that I finally hold down carbon dioxide concentration to 445-535ppm with decrease less than 3% as of 2030. This is decrease less than 0.12% of annual growth rates, but the quantity of influence varies according to an area. (table SPM.4, box SPM.3, 3.3, 3.4, 11.4-11.6)
  • I can relax a climate change if I change life and the behavior pattern in all fields. (4.1, 5.1, 6.6, 6.7, 7.3)
  • Air pollution decreases by the reduction of the GHG discharge and can bring an effect to reduce the cost of the easing measure by just that much. (11.8)
  • The action of the developed country (Annex I countries) affects world economy and GHG discharge. But there is uncertainty to quantity of influence of the carbon Lee cage (and the discharge restraint in a certain area is accompanied for local discharge increase). (11.7)
  • About the easing measure for restraint and climate change of the GHG discharge:
  • The effectiveness of the following technique is pointed out.
  • Development, the use (shifts from renewable energy, a cogeneration, atomic energy, coal to natural gas) of the energy source that is low discharge (4.3,4.4)
  • Collection, retention (CCS) (4.3,4.4) of carbon dioxide
  • Energy facilities update, a policy of the securing of energy security. (4.1-4.5, 7.3, 11.3, 11.6, 11.8)
  • The mild technical application (gas sipper, hybrid car, clean diesel, biofuel car) in the transportation section (5.4)
  • Improvement of the energy efficiency of the existing new building. Secondary profit is big in this. (6.4-6.8)
  • An energy consumption and discharge reduction by the industrial division particularly energy collection type industry. (7.1, 7.3, 7.4, 7.6)
  • Carbon fixed promotion to the soil in the agriculture section, GHG discharge restraint, the supply of biomass energy resources. (8.4, 8.5, 8.8, 8.10)
  • An easing measure (tree planting, forest management, use of biomass energy) that utilized the forest. (9.4, 9.5, 9.7)
  • Use of waste。 (10.3-10.6)
  • Obstacles include the following factor.
  • The demand increase in the transportation section, taste and the policy lack of consumers. (5.3-5.5)
  • Generally the effect of the measures technology of the geoengineering (iron dispersion to the ocean, the direct removal of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, cover in the atmosphere upper air of the light of the sun) is uncertain and is non-proof. (11.2)

Long-term easing measure (after 2030)

  • 環境中のGHG量を抑制した水準に保つには、GHG排出量をどこかで減らし始めなければならない。時期が早いほど温暖化の影響が小さい。(表SPM.5,図SPM.8)
  • 今後20〜30年間の緩和努力が大きな影響力を持つ。
  • 多くの予測シナリオが下記技術を引き続き重要視する。(図SPM.9, 3.3, 3.4)
  • 緩和策への投資と世界規模での普及について：(2.7, 3.3, 3.4, 3.6, 4.3, 4.4, 4.6)
  • 公的・私的両面の研究・開発・デモンストレーション(RD&D)が必要である。これによる公的な便益は民間部門で得られる便益より大きく、公的な支援が明らかに正当である。
  • 開発・普及過程での障壁を取り除き目標達成するには適切な奨励策が有効になり得る。
  • 2050年の緩和策コストは平均でGDPの1〜5.5%と予測する。(表SPM.6,囲みSPM.3,SPM.4)

政策、手法、手段

  • 気候変化の緩和に有効な政策手法は数多い。効果は制度の出来(design)に依存する。(7.9, 12.2, 13.2, 13.4、表SPM.7)
  • GHG排出量に関する規制や標準、環境税（炭素税)、排出権取引、化石燃料への補助金削減(4.5)
  • エネルギー部門：再生可能エネルギーへの固定価格買い取り制度（フィードインタリフ制度）適用や助成、利用義務づけ(4.5)
  • 運輸部門：燃費や排出量規制、バイオ燃料混合、課税、公共交通利用促進
  • 建物部門：規制、標準化、認証、助成策
  • 工業部門：ベンチマーク情報提供、助成、税の減免、自主的努力の要請
他部門も助成や規制が有効である。
  • 産業と政府間で取り決める自助的努力の協定は、関係者へ注意を喚起し政策発達の一翼を担ったが、多くは顕著な効果を挙げていない。しかし少数の国で計測できる排出量削減につながった。
  • UNFCCCとその京都議定書により、気候問題に関し世界的な注意が喚起され、将来の緩和策に繋がる仕組みの構築が始まった。(1.4, 11.4, 13.3)
  • 成功する国際的緩和協定は費用対効果の面で有効・公正かつ実行可能である。(13.3)

持続的発展と気候変化の緩和

  • 持続的発展への転換は気候変化を大きく緩和できる。そのためにはいくつもの障壁が取り除かれなねばならないかも知れない。(1.2, 2.2, 2.5, 3.3, 3.5, 4.5, 5.4, 6.6, 6.9, 7.8, 8.5, 9.5, 9.7, 10.5, 11.9, 12.1〜12.3)

知識面でのギャップ

  • 特に途上国で気候変化の緩和策に関する知識ギャップが激しい。このギャップの研究を進めると将来の不確実性が減少し、気候変化緩和策の立案がより容易になるだろう。(TS.14)

統合報告書

3つの作業部会による報告内容を踏まえた統合報告書(Synthesis Report; SYR) が2007年11月のIPCC総会（スペイン）にて採択され、同年末に公開された[9]。内容は、統合報告書のSPMに要約される[10]。

IPCC議長のPachauri博士は、AR4 SYRの発表の際、下記のようなメッセージを世界に発信した[11]。

  • 気候変化はあらゆる場所において、発展に対する深刻な脅威である。
  • もう疑っている時では無い。我々を取り巻く気候システムの温暖化は決定的に明確であり、人類の活動が直接的に関与している。
  • 現在進行している地球温暖化の動きを遅らせ、さらには逆転させることは、我々の世代のみが可能な(defining)挑戦である。

そして、次のガンジーの言葉で締めくくっている：「この世界の内に望む変化に、あなた自身が成ってみせなさい。」[11]。

使われている表記

AR4では、下記の用語・表記を用いている[12][8][13]。

不確実性(uncertainty)

IPCCは評価の不確実性について一貫した用語使用を求めており、AR4では次の表記が使われる。 [14] [15] [16]

可能性(likelihood)

成果や結果の可能性が確率として表現できれば確率ごとに下記用語を用いるが、確率は専門家の判断に基づき必ずしも客観的手続きによって得られない。

  • 発生確率＞99%：「ほぼ確実である」(virtually certain)
  • ＞95%：「可能性が極めて高い」(extremely likely)
  • ＞90%：「可能性が非常に高い」(very likely)
  • ＞66%：「可能性が高い」(likely)
  • ＞50%：「どちらかと言えば」(more likely than not)
  • ＜33%：「可能性が低い」(unlikely)
  • ＜10%：「可能性が非常に低い」(very unlikely)
  • ＜5%：「可能性が極めて低い」(extremely unlikely)

ただし、2008年3月の訳語見直し[16]以前の気象庁訳は、上記の「非常に」が「かなり」とされていた。

確信度(confidence)

基礎となる科学的知見(underlying science)への確信度を専門家の判断に基づき表現する場合に下記表記が用いられる(一部紹介)。

  • 10のうち9以上が正しい：「確信度が非常に高い」(very high confidence)
  • 10のうち8が正しい：「確信度が高い」(high confidence)

2008年3月の訳語見直し[16]以前の気象庁訳は、「確信度」でなく「信頼性」を使っていた。上記で「非常に」が「かなり」となっていた。

意見一致水準と証拠量

第三作業部会の報告書では、不確実性を、専門家の意見の一致水準（level of agreement）と、証拠の量（個々の原典の質と量）（amount of evidence）の二種類の尺度についてそれぞれ3段階の用語で表現する。

気候変化・気候変動 (climate change)

気候変動に関する政府間パネル（IPCC）および気候変動枠組条約の名称の「気候変動」は英語ではclimate changeである。IPCCでは自然変動と人間活動の影響を区別せずに含むが、気候変動枠組条約は人間活動に起因する気候の変化に限定する違いがある。

対応する日本語は、もし「変動」と「変化」を区別するならば「気候変化」が適切である。本記事では組織・条約・文書の固有名以外に「気候変化」を用いた。気象庁は「気候変化」を用いる事が多く、IPCC第4次評価報告書についても2007年発表の訳文[17]で「気候変化」を用いていた。2008年3月に他の部会報告書の日本語訳と用語を統一するため「気候変動」に変更した[16][18]。

AR4に見つかった誤りと訂正

AR4には下記のような誤りが見つかり修正された。懐疑論者の攻撃対象になったがいずれもAR4の結論を揺るがすものではないとされる[5]。

こうした誤りを受けIPCCや国連は、インターアカデミーカウンシル(InterAcademy Council, IAC)に対し、IPCC全体に関する独立したレビューを要請し、より厳密さや信頼性を高めることを表明している[19][20]。

ヒマラヤの氷河の将来見通し

第二作業部会報告書のアジアの章(10章)のヒマラヤの氷河に関する節(10.6.2節)で、ヒマラヤの氷河消滅時期を「2035年まで」とした記述が科学的根拠不十分な情報に基づいていたことがわかり[21][22]、IPCCはこれを訂正した[23]。ヒマラヤを含む地球全体で氷河の後退傾向が見られ、海面上昇や飲料水確保へ悪影響が懸念されることに変わりなく[5]、IPCCは前述の訂正とあわせ、統合報告書(49ページ)の氷河に関する結論は変更の必要がないという声明[23]を出した。

オランダの海面下の面積比率

第二作業部会報告書のヨーロッパの章(12章)で、オランダ国土の55％が海抜以下と記したが、オランダ国立環境評価機関が作成した文献の誤りを引き継ぎいだ、洪水の被害を受けやすい地域を含む面積比であった[24]。オランダ政府の指摘で、IPCCは2010年2月、正しい数値は26％だと訂正した[25]。

アマゾンの熱帯雨林の乾燥に対する脆弱性

第二作業部会報告書のラテンアメリカの章(13章)で、アマゾンの熱帯雨林が乾燥の影響を受けやすいことにつき、査読を受けない論文が根拠とされていたことが問題になった。専門家により報告書の文献選択は最適でなかったが内容を裏づける査読済み論文が存在し論旨を変更する必要がないと判断された[26][5]。

脚注

[ヘルプ]
  1. ^ IPCC第４次評価報告書について（環境省）
  2. ^ 「ココが知りたい温暖化」のIPCCに関するＱ＆Ａ
  3. ^ a b c d e f g IPCC の役割とIPCC の評価プロセスの主要な要素、2010年2月4日
  4. ^ 環境省によるAR4の要約プレゼンテーション
  5. ^ a b c d "Attacks on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Obscure Real Science". Union of Concerned Scientists (2010年2月10日). 2010年5月6日時点のオリジナルよりアーカイブ。2016年1月16日閲覧。
  6. ^ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  7. ^ Table10.7, Figure 10.33
  8. ^ a b AR4 WGIII SPM 要約（環境省）
  9. ^ AR4 SYR
  10. ^ AR4 SYR SPM
  11. ^ a b IPCC総会(Spain, Valencia, 2007.11.17)に於けるPress Presentationのスライド
  12. ^ AR4 WGI SPMの要約（環境省）
  13. ^ Glossary(IPCC)
  14. ^ AR4統合報告書（英語）P.27(PDF P.5)
  15. ^ "AR4 第一作業部会報告技術要約（日本語訳）". pp. 2-4 (PDF pp.6-8). 2016年1月16日閲覧。
  16. ^ a b c d 気象庁 (2008年3月28日). "IPCC第4次報告書における訳語の見直しについて". 2013年6月6日時点のオリジナルよりアーカイブ。2016年1月16日閲覧。
  17. ^ "AR4 第一作業部会報告 政策決定者向け要約 気象庁訳" (2007年). 2009年3月20日時点のオリジナルよりアーカイブ。2016年1月16日閲覧。
  18. ^ "AR4 第一作業部会報告 政策決定者向け要約 気象庁訳" (2008年). 2013年1月6日時点のオリジナルよりアーカイブ。2016年1月16日閲覧。
  19. ^ 国連及び気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)の要請に応じたIPCC のプロセスと手続についての科学アカデミーによる独立レビューの実施 IPCC, 2010年3月10日, 環境省の日本語訳
  20. ^ 温暖化報告書の誤りをめぐり、IPCCの調査を依頼 国連 AFP BB News, 2010年3月11日
  21. ^ Pallava Bagla: Himalayan glaciers melting deadline 'a mistake' BBC, 2009年12月5日
  22. ^ "Tracking the source of glacier misinformation". Science. American Association for the Advancement of Science (2010年1月20日). 2010年1月26日時点のオリジナルよりアーカイブ。2016年1月16日閲覧。
  23. ^ a b ヒマラヤの氷河の融解に関するIPCC声明 IPCC, 2010年1月20日, 環境省による日本語訳
  24. ^ Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: Correction wording flood risks for the Netherlands in IPCC report 2010年6月16日更新
  25. ^ U.N. climate panel admits Dutch sea level flaw ロイター, 2010年2月13日
  26. ^ Roger Harrabin: IPCC under scrutiny BBC, 2010年1月30日

関連項目

外部リンク

AR4報告書は全て下記のIPCC公式サイトより自由に入手可能である。

日本では環境省がAR4の情報集約サイトを提供し、概要をまとめたプレゼンテーションや一般向けの解説パンフレットを公開している。日本語訳は気象庁、環境省、地球産業文化研究所、経済産業省、文部科学省の協力によって提供されている。

第一作業部会報告書

第二作業部会報告書

第三作業部会報告書

統合報告書

書籍

日本では2009年8月、統合報告書のSPM、WG1〜WG3のSPMおよびTSの和訳が書籍として出版された。

「https://ja.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=IPCC第4次評価報告書&oldid=58255355」から取得

This article is taken from the Japanese Wikipedia IPCC fourth evaluation report

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